某型导弹测试系统模块化设计

基于1553B及ARINC429总线的导弹系统已经广泛应用,为了在导弹研制及生产阶段检验导弹工作时序的正确性,需要一种测试设备对导弹的工作时序进行检测。阐述了该测试设备的构造及工作原理,硬件设计及软件设计。测试系统的研制成功满足了某型导弹的试验测试需求,也为后续相关型号测试设备的研制提供了基础。     

舰炮武器系统仿真试验可信性评估方法

在介绍舰炮武器系统半实物仿真原理及系统组成的基础上,深入探讨了仿真试验结果可信性问题、仿真模型校核、验证与确认(VVA)的层次、仿真模型评估方法;介绍了基于最大熵谱估计的可信性评估定量分析方法;给出了仿真试验静、动态数据的验证方法以及仿真结果静、动态精度的检验方法;最后,以某型舰炮武器系统定型试验雷达通道数据验证了以上所述方法的有效性,并展望了可信性分析方法的发展方向。     

基于UML的导弹伺服测试系统通用设计方法

分析了导弹伺服测试系统组成及功能,采用UML静态建模技术构建了导弹伺服测试系统设计的需求描述模型,运用动态建模方法建立了系统结构模型和行为模型,并以上述模型为基础,设计了导弹伺服测试系统通用软硬件结构。该方法优化了导弹伺服测试系统共性设计,并创建了特性模型架构和特化接口,有效提高了系统的设计效率和开发质量。     

新疆少数民族高等教育与人口就业——基于二进制响应模型的实证检验

新疆少数民族高等教育和人口就业的关系是一个异常重要,却少有学者关注的研究领域。本文利用二进制响应模型实证检验了新疆少数民族高等教育对就业的影响。研究结果显示,新疆少数民族高等教育是促进人口就业的Ganger原因,少数民族高等教育对促进就业具有显著的滞后效应,当期少数民族在校大学生占比超过其中位数,一年后就业人口占比超过其中位数的概率将增加23.13%,两年后全疆就业人口占比超过其中位数的概率将增加57.95%。为此,本文提出了进一步提高少数民族高考升学率,继续巩固基础教育阶段成果和高度重视少数民族职业教育和培训等三方面的建议。     

Some aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components

In this article, we study aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components. We show that the decreasing likelihood ratio property is closed under the formation of random minima. We also show, by counterexamples, that other aging properties are not closed under the formation of random minima or maxima. Some mistakes in the literature are corrected. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 238–243, 2014     

核试验地震核查的模糊逻辑推理综合识别方法

建立了一种增强性模糊推理方法,用来满足综合地震事件识别判据的需求。利用这种推理方法进行了地震事件模糊逻辑推理综合识别方法研究,给出了方法的框架。实例研究表明这种综合识别方法在核试验地震监测中有减少可疑事件数量的能力。     

Bivariate models from univariate life distributions: A characterization cum modeling approach

Bivariate life distribution models are of importance for studying interdependent components. We present a generic approach by introducing a new concept of characterized model in stead of a characterized distribution. It strikes a balance between characterization and modeling approaches to eliminate their individual limitations and incorporate their respective strengths. The proposed model, being a characterized one, admits many important properties irrespective of the choice of marginal distributions. The retention of univariate IFR, DFR, IFRA, DFRA, NBU, and NWU class properties in the bivariate setup has been ensured along with some results on series combinations and convolution. No other models, available in the literature, can ensure simultaneous retention of these fundamental and extremely important class properties. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censoring

Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Commun Statist Theory Methods 17 (1988), 1857–1870] considered a hybrid censoring scheme and obtained the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of an exponential distribution along with an exact lower confidence bound. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann Inst Statist Math 55 (2003), 319–330] recently derived an alternative simpler expression for the distribution of the MLE. These authors also proposed a new hybrid censoring scheme and derived similar results for the exponential model. In this paper, we propose two generalized hybrid censoring schemes which have some advantages over the hybrid censoring schemes already discussed in the literature. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under these generalized hybrid censoring schemes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A general approach to the shape of failure rate and MRL functions

Failure rate and mean residual life are two important characteristics for studying reliability of products. In literature, some work studied the shape of failure rate function based on the knowledge of the associated probability density function; some other work investigated the shape of mean residual life function based on the shape of the associated failure rate function separately for continuous case and discrete case. In this article, a general approach is developed which can be applied to the aforementioned studies. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004